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Corn Outlook:
Initial peace negotiations between the U.S. and Iran ended last weekend with Vice President Vance saying they went well. Further talks will be ongoing but there could be some flare ups along the way. Meanwhile, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has picked up. Looking at corn, exports have been strong this season, but the market has struggled since May because of non-threatening growing conditions, and a record crop being harvested in Brazil and Argentina. Export inspections were disappointing last week at 57.2 MB, their lowest since mid-May and below the average of 68.4 MB that must be shipped weekly to meet USDA’s target of 3.325 BB. The crop rating stood unchanged this past week at 68 percent in good-to-excellent condition and is below the year ago rating of 70 percent. According to Ag Watch’s yield model, the national yield is 184.7 bpa compared to the USDA at 183.0 bpa. The bottom line is exports may be peaking, and unless weather becomes a factor in July, price recoveries could be limited.
Bean Outlook
Traders remain optimistic that China will buy U.S. soybeans because of a 132,000 ton purchase last week. In my opinion, some purchases are to be expected, but whether they buy the 25 million tons stated in last fall’s summit meeting could depend upon the outcome of the mid-term election. If the Democrats regain the House, President Trump’s leverage will be weakened. Currently, the polymarket betting odds are 81 percent that the Democrats will retake it. In other matters, export inspections last week were a marketing year low of 8.8 MB and below the average of 15.6 MB that must be shipped weekly to achieve USDA’s target of 1.510 BB. The crop rating last week was unchanged at 66 percent in good-to-excellent condition and par with a year ago. According to Ag Watch’s yield model, the national yield is 53.0 bpa which is USDA’s estimate. The bottom line in soybeans is the export pace has declined 70 percent from early February, China is an uncertainty, and the crop is off to a strong start.
Wheat Outlook:
Winter wheat harvest is progressing at a fast pace and is 40 percent complete compared to only 18 percent a year ago and the average of 24 percent. The marketing year for exports is off to a slow start this season with inspections last week of 14.4 MB. They must average 15.0 MB on a weekly basis to meet USDA’s projection of 775 MB. With the dollar at its highest point since May 2025, competition with our global competitors will be intense.
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