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Corn Outlook:
Weather has increased its dominance in the grains recently, overshadowing events in the Middle East surrounding the U.S. and Iranian conflict. Intense heat encompasses much of the Midwest, but has been accompanied by rainfall, alleviating traders’ concerns of a major threat. Last week, the rating for corn fell one point to 67 percent of the crop in good-to-excellent condition and compared to the year ago rating of 73 percent. According to Ag Watch’s yield model, this equates to a national yield of 181.2 bpa versus the USDA at 183.0 bpa. The acreage report this week was mostly a nonevent with USDA’s estimate of 95.3 million, unchanged from the March report. Exports remain firm with inspections last week at 70.3 MB, which are above the average of 68.1 MB needed each week to meet USDA’s target of 3.325 BB. The bottom line in corn is demand is strong, but stocks are abundant and weather has not been a factor thus far.
Bean Outlook
Traders remain hopeful of China increasing purchases of U.S. soybeans. During the past few weeks, sales were announced to an unknown destination with the belief that they are to China. As mentioned before, we may not know their intentions until closer to the mid-term elections as they could be a factor. In other developments, the crop rating fell one point last week to 65 percent in good-to-excellent condition and compares to the year ago rating of 66 percent. According to Ag Watch’s yield model, this equates to a national yield of 52.5 bpa versus the USDA at 53.0 bpa. USDA’s acreage estimate this week of 85.4 million, up from 84.7 million in the March report offers little fodder for the bulls. Meanwhile, exports are mostly run of the mill with inspections last week of 15.4 MB. Since early February, the pace has fallen 70 percent. The bottom line in soybeans is a lot of hope is riding on China, but exports have languished and weather has not been a factor so far.
Wheat Outlook:
Stocks of wheat are getting tighter, but the dollar at a one-year high is a headwind. Meanwhile, harvest breezing along at 48 percent done compared to 34 percent a year ago and the average of 39 percent. The acreage report this week was positive as it showed all wheat acres falling to 42.7 million from 43.8 million in the March report. Looking at exports, they are off to a slow start for the marketing year with inspections last week at 13.1 MB. They must average 15.1 MB each week to meet USDA’s target of 775 MB. The bottom line in wheat is stocks are shrinking, but exports face stiff competition because of the dollar’s strength.
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