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Corn Outlook:
There is not much fresh news in the grains. Russia and Ukraine continue to exchange missile and drone strikes, while negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are at a stalemate with both sides claiming control of the Strait of Hormuz. Harvest has begun in the southern areas of the Corn Belt with above average yields being reported. The long position of the funds has risen to 1.325 BB, the largest since May 2022, while short position of commercial traders has grown to 3.190 BB, also their largest since May 2022. The bulls should take notice, because when that happened, prices fell 32 percent. Meanwhile, exports for the new season of 2026-27 are off to a solid start with inspections last week of 65.4 MB. They must average 63.7 MB on a weekly basis to reach USDA’s projection of 3.275 BB.
Bean Outlook
Soybean planting has just begun in Brazil which means traders will be glued to every forecast for the next few months. Currently, most of the growing areas are getting decent rainfall. However, there will likely be some flare ups along the way. Meanwhile, optimism is running high that China will fulfill last fall’s agreement to purchase 25 million tons of U.S. soybeans. President Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet on September 24th which will be of great interest. Looking at exports for the new season of 2026-27, they are off to a slow start with inspections last week of 12.5 MB. They must average 32.3 MB to meet USDA’s target of 1.660 BB.
Wheat Outlook:
Russia and Ukraine continue to trade missile and drone strikes with no end in sight to the conflict. However, both sides may be more receptive to negotiations when winter approaches and cold weather sets in. Meanwhile, export inspections last week were disappointing at 12.5 MB. They must average 15.4 MB on a weekly basis to meet USDA’s target of 775 MB. Right now, the pace is running slightly above the level for their target to be met, but there can be no hiccups. In other developments, spring wheat harvest is winding down at 86 percent complete compared to 83 percent a year ago and 83 percent for the average.
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