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Corn Outlook:
Fall harvest is getting underway, meaning the focus of traders will soon turn to demand rather than supply. Currently, the corn harvest is 8 percent complete compared to 7 percent a year ago and 6 percent for the average. The ongoing wars between Ukraine-Russia and U.S.-Iran continue to rage, showing no end, which has led to a spike in crude oil. Meanwhile, interest rates are rising and could be headed significantly higher, adding to the uncertainty. Looking at exports, inspections last week were 60.0 MB and must average 63.7 MB to meet USDA’s projection of 3.275 BB. Mexico, the largest buyer of our corn, is expected to see their imports fall 500,000 tons. Bottom line—many uncertainties lie ahead.
Bean Outlook
There is not much fresh news in soybeans, other than what has been mentioned in corn. Harvest has begun and is 6 percent complete compared to 5 percent a year ago and 3 percent for the average. Meanwhile, optimism is high that China will fulfill their agreement to buy 25 million tons of U.S. soybeans. So far, they have committed 9.8 million tons. Looking at exports, inspections last week were 24.7 MB and must average 33.0 MB on a weekly basis to meet USDA’s target of 1.685 BB. Currently, the fund long position is its largest since November 2025, meaning there will be little tolerance if the meeting between President Trump and Xi of China on September 24th is disappointing.
Wheat Outlook:
Wheat is struggling as the USDA recently increased their world stocks estimate by 3.0 million tons. While exports from Ukraine and Russia are forecast to decline 4.0 million tons, a 3.5-million-ton increase is projected from Argentina, Australia, and Canada. Meanwhile, U.S. exports are unchanged at 775 MB. Last week, inspections were 16.7 MB and above the average of 15.3 MB needed to be shipped weekly to meet USDA’s target. In other matters, planting of the winter wheat crop has begun and is 8 percent complete compared to 10 percent a year ago and the average of 12 percent.
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