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Corn Outlook:
There is little fresh news in the grains other than great strides are being made in planting. As of last week, 78 percent of the corn crop had been planted compared to 67 percent a year ago and 73 percent for the average. The weather is mostly non-threatening through early June, which means crop development should get off to a good start. While optimism rose last week from the postponement of tariffs by the Trump Administration, it has not resulted in goodwill purchases from our trading partners, so far. Meanwhile, exports are encouraging with inspections last week of 67.6 MB. Although the pace of shipments peaked in late April, they are on track to meet USDA’s target of 2.6 BB. The bottom line in corn is that with ending stocks forecast at 1.8 BB, the highest since 2019, and weather currently non-threatening, price gains may be limited.
Bean Outlook
Soybeans rebounded midweek but may face a headwind from record global stocks, as well as the record crop in Brazil. Also, Brazil’s exports are projected to rise 7.5 million tons, but the U.S. has been lowered 35 MB. Meanwhile, planting is making great strides and forging ahead at 66 percent complete compared to 50 percent a year ago and 53 percent for the average. Looking at exports, they are not very encouraging as inspections last week were a marketing year low of 8.0 BB with China being a no show again. The bottom line in soybeans is that China and other trading partners may not be as quick in signing an agreement with the Trump Administration for increasing purchases as many are hoping. It must be remembered that over the past decade China has spent billions in expanding Brazil’s port, road, and rail infrastructure to secure a dependable source of grain and are unlikely to let their investment stand idle.
Wheat Outlook:
Wheat is showing some signs of life as the crop rating fell 2 points last week to 52 percent in good-to-excellent condition, and an improving export pace the past few weeks. Last week, inspections exceeded the previous week at 15.7 MB with cumulative shipments totaling 760 MB. However, there are only a couple of weeks left in the marketing year and reaching USDA’s projection of 820 MB looks doubtful. Right now, the most supportive factor for wheat is the funds are short 580 MB, their largest position since April 2024, and beginning to cover.
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