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Corn Outlook:
The grains have been supported lately from the dollar falling to a four-year low, and President Trump saying that Congress will soon send him a bill for year-round E-15 to sign. In the meantime, there are concerns about his tariff policy that changes direction like the wind. Reports are that some of our trading partners are reassessing their reliance upon the U.S. Looking at corn, export competition with South America will be strong as Ag Rural forecasts Brazil’s production at 136.6 million tons compared to 131.0 million for the USDA. Meanwhile, dry areas in Argentina have recently received needed rain. Looking at exports, there was a slight improvement in inspections last week that totaled 59.4 MB. However, they were below the average of 63.3 MB that must be shipped weekly to meet USDA’s target of 3.2 BB. Currently, shipments are on track for 3.0 BB. The bottom line is that dollar weakness is the factor mostly supporting corn.
Bean Outlook
Soybeans are currently being supported by weakness in the dollar. Meanwhile, harvest is underway in Brazil with some exceptional yields being reported. Ag Rural projects Brazil’s production at 181.0 million tons compared to 178.0 million by the USDA. However, some sources believe their production could be as high as 186.0 million tons. Looking at exports, inspections last week were 48.6 MB with China taking 30.4 MB. China has fulfilled their obligation to purchase 12 million tons from the U.S., but some are optimistic they could buy more. However, that might not be realistic, especially with a record crop being projected in South America and they being the cheaper source.
Wheat Outlook:
Wheat is currently finding support from the dollar falling to a four-year low. However, our export prices are still higher than our competitors’. Last week, inspections were 12.8 MB and well below the average of 16.6 MB that must be shipped weekly to meet USDA’s target of 900 MB. Currently, shipments are on track for only 805 MB. The bottom line is exports must improve with the weaker dollar.
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