If you would like to receive our technical comments including price projections and cycle analysis for important tops and bottoms, click on the link at the bottom of the commentary to sign up for a 30-day free trial subscription. Follow Ag Watch Market Advisors on Facebook and Twitter for timely information not posted in
Corn Outlook:
The USDA Ag Outlook forum projects planted acres of corn in 2026 falling 4.8 million to 94.0 million with ending stocks of 1.837 BB, down 290 MB from a year ago. The reduction in acres was more than expected and may be on the high side if producers follow their rotational pattern. Bear in mind that the report is not carved in stone, and is based upon statistical trends, not a producer survey. Meanwhile, current stocks of corn are more than ample to meet demand. Its support has come from firm exports, and the expectation of fewer acres planted this spring. While exports have been center stage, they show signs of slipping. Last week, inspections were 58.5 MB and below the average of 67.6 MB that must be shipped weekly to meet USDA’s target of 3.3 BB. Currently, shipments are on track for 2.935 BB. Be aware that exports peak 58 percent of the time during the March-April period, and 82 percent during March-May.
Bean Outlook
USDA in their outlook forum projects planted acres of soybeans in 2026 rising 3.8 million to 85.0 million with ending stocks up 5 MB to 355 MB. This was mostly in line with estimates. Meanwhile, optimism abounds that China will continue to buy more U.S. soybeans even though Brazil is the cheaper source at $43 per ton, and on track for a record crop. That said any additional purchases by China will likely be purely for political reasons, such as President Trump agreeing to limited arms sales to Taiwan. Looking at exports, inspections last week were 44.1 MB with China taking shipments of 25.1 MB. If the current pace continues, USDA’s target of 1.575 BB could be exceeded. Meanwhile, traders’ confidence of China buying additional soybeans has turned into a frenzy. This is reflected by the funds flipping from a short position of 95 MB during the third week of January to going long 385 MB last week. The bottom line is that for a healthy and viable market to exist, fundamental factors must be the key to price discovery, not politics.
Wheat Outlook:
USDA projects planted wheat acres in 2026 to decline 300,000 to 45.0 million with ending stocks slightly higher at 933 MB. Meanwhile, the rebound in the dollar and increased production prospects in Russia are speed bumps for the market. However, it is being supported by the rally in soybeans. In the meantime, exports are a nonevent with inspections last week of 13.7 MB. They must average 16.6 MB each week to meet USDA’s target of 900 MB. Currently, the pace of shipments is on track for 875 MB which means it will be a close race as to whether their projection will be met.
Comments and suggestions are provided for information purposes only. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed to its accuracy or completeness. Readers using the information contained herein are responsible for their own actions. No presentations can be made that recommendations will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. This information is neither an offer to sell nor solicitation to buy of the commodity futures mentioned herein. The writer may be trading in the commodities mentioned