If you would like to receive our technical comments including price projections and cycle analysis for important tops and bottoms, click on the link at the bottom of the commentary to sign up for a 30-day free trial subscription. Follow Ag Watch Market Advisors on Facebook and Twitter for timely information not posted in
Corn Outlook:
Trading conditions in the grains are returning to normal following the holidays with the immediate focus being the final 2025 crop report on Monday. Expectations are for a slight reduction in USDA’s corn and soybean yield estimates. Meanwhile, looking at corn, exports have been a hot topic this season but are showing signs of cooling off. Last week, inspections were 47.5 MB and below the average of 63.0 MB that must be shipped weekly to meet USDA’s target of 3.2 BB. Since the third week of November, the pace of shipments has fallen 14.0 percent. Currently, we are on track for shipments of approximately 3.0 BB. Mexico, our largest customer, only took 243,382 tons last week, their smallest shipment received since the week of October 10th. The bottom line is if exports lose ground, it will be difficult to maintain current values.
Bean Outlook
Brazil’s soybean harvest is just around the corner with some sources forecasting a mammoth crop of 178.0 million tons with one estimate as high as 180.0 million. However, traders are reluctant to press the market lower as it is oversold, a bumper crop has already been factored into values, and we face a major crop report on Monday. Meanwhile, exports remain sluggish as cumulative shipments are 45 percent below a year ago. However, last week, inspections exceeded the previous week at 36.0 MB with China taking 14.5 MB. Estimates are that they have taken 9.0 tons of their 12.0-million-ton agreement. In the meantime, the overall pace of shipments has been on the downswing since the week of November 10th and has fallen 26.0 percent. The bottom line is that unless business picks up substantially with China, the market faces a strong headwind as a massive crop looms in Brazil.
Wheat Outlook:
Wheat has found support recently from the forecast of warmer temperatures in the Plains which could cause issues if cold conditions return. Although cumulative exports are 19.6 percent above a year ago, the pace has declined in the past couple of weeks. Last week, inspections were disappointing at a marketing year low of 6.7 MB. They must average 16.1 MB each week to meet USDA’s projection of 900 MB. Currently, we are on track for shipments of 870 MB.
Comments and suggestions are provided for information purposes only. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed to its accuracy or completeness. Readers using the information contained herein are responsible for their own actions. No presentations can be made that recommendations will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. This information is neither an offer to sell nor solicitation to buy of the commodity futures mentioned herein. The writer may be trading in the commodities mentioned