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Corn Outlook:
Corn will continue to meet a headwind from the harvest of a record crop, old crop inventory that is 196 MB more than expected, ending stocks possibly as high as 2.3-2.4 BB, and the government shutdown leaving traders and the ag industry in the dark regarding the weekly USDA sales and export reports. Meanwhile, corn harvest is progressing and is 18 percent complete compared to the average of 19 percent. While expectations are the yield may not be as high as expected earlier, it will still be a record. To work through a mammoth supply, exports are essential. Last week, inspections were at a marketing year high of 60.1 MB, and above the average of 57.7 MB that must be shipped weekly to meet USDA’s target of 2.975 BB. Whether this pace can be sustained, however, is another question. Corn exports generally do not peak until April, but in 2016, a similar year, they peaked in late September.
Bean Outlook
China’s absence from importing U.S. soybeans continues to be a thorn in the market’s side. They have not received a shipment since early June and are meeting their needs from Brazil and Argentina. Last week, export inspections were 21.8 MB and below the average of 33.3 MB that must be shipped weekly to meet USDA’s projection of 1.685 BB. If China continues to shun the U.S., and the current pace continues, shipments will only total 1.1 BB. In the meantime, President Trump said on Truth Social that he will be meeting with President Xi of China at the end of this month, and soybeans will be a topic of discussion. However, that does not mean there will be a trade deal. Meanwhile, harvest is well underway at 19 percent complete, slightly below the average of 20 percent. The bottom line in soybeans is the USDA’s ending stocks estimate of 300 MB could increase substantially without China’s imports.
Wheat Outlook:
USDA’s increase in inventory of 79 MB to 2.120 BB weighed on wheat earlier this week, along with concerns of increasing global production. Meanwhile, planting of the winter wheat crop is well underway and is 34 percent complete compared to the average of 36 percent. Exports have been impressive since late August but may be waning. Inspections last week were below the previous week at 27.1 MB, but above the average of 15.7 MB that must be shipped weekly to meet USDA’s target of 900 MB. However, the pace has dropped in the past couple of weeks
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