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Corn Outlook:
Thanksgiving marks the beginning of the holiday season in which interest in the grains generally wanes until after the first of the year. However, there may be more interest this season because of the focus on China. While China has not made any purchases of corn, so far, imports from Mexico and Japan are robust. Last week, export inspections of 64.2 MB were less than the previous week’s marketing year high, but above the average of 59.6 MB that must be shipped weekly to meet USDA’s target of 3.075 BB. Exports must stay strong, because there will be little help from feed consumption as placements of cattle are 227,000 head below a year ago. While exports have been a bright spot to this point, South America will be a strong competitor which will limit price gains.
Bean Outlook
Soybeans have turned weaker lately as China has fallen behind in purchasing the 12.0 million tons by the end of January as they agreed to with the Trump Administration. So far, they have bought slightly over 3.0 million tons. As mentioned before, they may be waiting to see how the Supreme Court rules on the legality of President Trump’s tariff policy. What is concerning now is that although sales have been made to China, there have been no shipments to them. Last week, export inspections were 29.3 MB and above the average needed to meet USDA’s target of 1.635 BB, but no shipments were reported to China. The bottom line is, if the Supreme Court rules against President Trump on the tariffs, China could cancel their purchases and switch them to South America. Right now, there is a great deal of uncertainty surrounding China’s intentions.
Wheat Outlook:
Wheat is meeting a headwind from Russian producers becoming more aggressive in their sales. In October, their sales were the highest since that time in 2022. Meanwhile, talks are ongoing between Russia and Ukraine for a peace agreement. Looking at exports, inspections rebounded to 17.4 MB last week and were above the average of 15.8 MB that must be shipped each week to meet USDA’s projection of 900 MB. In other developments, the rating of the winter wheat crop rose 3 points last week to 48 percent in good-to-excellent condition but is down from the year ago rating of 55 percent.
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