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Corn Outlook:
Right now, the focus in the grains is on planting progress and the cat and mouse game the Trump Administration and China are playing regarding trade talks. China is giving the impression they are in no hurry to negotiate, as they can obtain ag products from sources other than the U.S. This will likely be a long and drawn-out affair. Meanwhile, corn planting is progressing smoothly at 24 percent complete compared to 25 percent a year ago and 22 percent for the average. However, because of wet conditions, Illinois and Kentucky are running 10 percent and 13 percent behind their average respectively. Looking at exports, they are solid with inspections last week of 65.1 MB. Mexico continues to receive the largest shipment followed by Japan. The bottom line in corn is that exports are sound, but the market is meeting a headwind from the stalemate in the trade dispute with China, and planting that is progressing at an above average pace.
Bean Outlook
Soybean are meeting a headwind from planting progressing at an above average pace, and exports to China that are declining. Last week, 18 percent of the crop had been planted compared to 17 percent a year ago and 12 percent for the average. Meanwhile, export inspections last week were the second lowest of the season at 16.1 MB with China taking 7.5 MB of the shipments. Since mid-November, deliveries to them have fallen 87 percent. However, shipments to Mexico and Europe have taken up some of the slack. The bottom line in soybeans is additional input will be needed to prop up values.
Wheat Outlook:
Recent showers in the central and southern Plains pushed wheat over the edge this week, sending prices to new lows. Because of the rainfall, the crop rating rose 4 points last week to 49 percent in good-to-excellent condition and is on par with a year ago. Meanwhile, better than expected exports of 23.7 MB has offered little support. Shipments have been trending higher since early March, but they are going mostly unnoticed. The funds have been trimming their short position since early April, but it still remains large at 460 MB.
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