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Corn Outlook:
Corn got off to a shaky start this week as weather looks non-threatening the next couple of weeks, the crop rating improved, rising 2 points last week to 71 percent in good-to-excellent condition, and the funds are adding to their shorts, increasing them 265 MB to 1.345 BB. The June Crop Report was a yawner as the USDA left their yield estimate unchanged at 181 bpa, production at 15.820 BB, but ending stocks for 2025-26 were lowered 50 MB to 1.750 BB because of a reduction in beginning stocks. World stocks declined more than expected, down 2.6 million tons to 275.2 million. Brazil’s production was unchanged at 131.0 million tons, as well as Argentina at 53.0 million. The bottom line in corn is that without a weather event occurring, there is little incentive for the funds to cover their shorts.
Bean Outlook
Soybeans have been more resilient than corn, mostly from optimism of the meeting in London this week with the U.S. and China agreeing to a framework for a trade deal. However, specifics of the deal are lacking, and it must be approved by both President Trump and Xi, which is fueling skepticism. Looking at the crop report, it is a nothing burger as the USDA left their yield estimate unchanged at 52.5 bpa, production at 4.340 BB, and 2025-26 also untouched at 295 MB. Meanwhile, world stocks are up 1.0 million tons to 125.3 million. No changes were made to Brazil’s and Argentina’s production as they were left at 175.0 and 48.5 tons respectively. The bottom line in soybeans is that with world stocks rising, and Brazil’s production forecast at a record, there is little to stir bullish interest.
Wheat Outlook:
Wheat slid this week as harvest of the winter crop is beginning, plus news of SovEcon increasing Russia’s production 1.8 million tons to 82.8 million. In the crop report, the USDA lowered 2025-26 ending stocks of wheat 25 MB to 898 MB because of a corresponding increase in exports. World stocks also fell 3.0 million tons to 262.6 million. The bottom line in wheat is that even though global stocks have been shrinking since 2019, it has not been enough to shake bearish sentiment, as the funds continue to hold a short position of 460 MB.
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