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Corn Outlook:
Corn recovered early this week as favorable weather seems to be priced into values for the moment. However, President Trump’s tariff policy is creating uncertainty. Some trade deals are being made, but others are more uncertain. Meanwhile, the crop rating last week stood unchanged at 74 percent in good-to-excellent condition and is 6 points above a year ago. According to Ag Watch’s yield model, this equates to a national yield of 184.5 bpa versus USDA’s estimate of 181.0 bpa. Exports last week were disappointing with inspections of 50.6 MB. This was below the average of 67.7 MB that must be shipped weekly to reach USDA’s target of 2.750 BB. The bottom line in corn is that, although favorable conditions may be priced in, and trade deals are being made, it might not be enough to cause the funds to abandon their shorts.
Bean Outlook
Soybeans are rebounding from a hotter, drier forecast for next week, and optimism of a trade deal with China possibly around the corner. However, they face a headwind from strong crop conditions, exports that are declining, and the potential for a record crop in Brazil for 2025-26. Last week, the crop rating for soybeans jumped 4 points to 70 percent in good-to-excellent condition, which is 2 points above a year ago and the highest rating since 2016. According to Ag Watch’s yield model, this equates to a national yield of 51.2 bpa compared to USDA’s estimate of 52.5 bpa. Looking at exports, they are not exactly a shining star with inspections last week a marketing year low of 5.4 MB. This was well below the average of 22.8 MB that must be shipped weekly to meet USDA’s target of 1.865 BB. For the sixth week in a row, China was a no show. The bottom line in soybeans is that with Brazil’s production rising, and imports from China in limbo, sustained price gains will be limited unless weather becomes a factor in August.
Wheat Outlook:
Wheat has not followed the strength in corn and soybeans because of harvest pressure. As of last week, it was 63 percent complete compared to 70 percent a year ago and 64 percent for the average. Meanwhile, exports are picking up and were a marketing year high last week of 16.1 MB. However, they must average 16.6 MB weekly to meet USDA’s target of 850. Right now, the biggest headwind for wheat is Russia’s production and exports are rising. SovEcon has increased their production forecast to 83.6 million tons from 83.0 million. The bottom line for wheat is that it needs bullish news.
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