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Corn Outlook:
Traders counting on a weather market in corn may have to wait another year. The forecast through the end of the month, and into early August, shows above normal temperatures sticking around, but also normal to above normal moisture. Last week, the crop rating remained unchanged at 74 percent in good-to-excellent condition for the third consecutive week and is 7-points above a year ago. According to Ag Watch’s yield model, this equates to a national yield of 184.5 bpa versus USDA’s estimate of 181.0 bpa. Meanwhile, exports have been good this season but are slipping. Last week, inspections were 38.7 MB, the smallest since early January. Since mid-June, shipments have been on the downswing and fallen 23.3 percent. The bottom line in corn is the chance for a weather rally is largely behind us, exports are stumbling, trade deals with Japan and the Philippines have been signed, but details are lacking. This weighs on bullish enthusiasm.
Bean Outlook
While weather could be a factor for soybeans in August, the clock is ticking unless there is a drastic change in the forecast. Currently, it shows above normal temperatures accompanied by normal to above normal moisture through the first week of next month. Last week, the crop rating was unchanged at 68 percent in good-to-excellent condition and is on par with the rating of a year ago. According to Ag Watch’s yield model, this equates to a national yield of 50.7 bpa compared to USDA’s estimate of 52.5 bpa. Looking at exports, they showed improvement over the previous week at 13.4 MB but were below the average of 24.3 MB that must be shipped each week to meet USDA’s target of 1.865 BB. For the seventh consecutive week, China was a no show. The bottom line is that unless China shows an interest in U.S. soybeans, or weather becomes a factor next month, price gains will be difficult to sustain.
Wheat Outlook:
There is very little news in wheat other than Bangladesh signing an agreement to purchase 700,000 tons annually from the U.S. Meanwhile, the winter wheat harvest is catching up at 73 percent done compared to 75 percent a year ago and 72 percent for the average. Looking at exports, inspections were a marketing year high last week at 26.9 MB. This exceeded the average of 16.4 MB that must be shipped weekly to meet USDA’s target of 850 MB. The question is, can this be sustained with Russia’s exports rising?
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