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Corn Outlook:
It has not been a cheerful time for grain producers as the prospect of a weather rally is fading, especially for corn, as 76 percent of the crop has pollinated, and there are no threats in the forecast through mid-August. Last week, the crop rating fell one-point to 73 percent in good-to-excellent condition but is 5-points above a year ago and is an 8-year high. According to Ag Watch’s yield model, this equates to a national yield of 184.5 bpa versus USDA’s estimate of 181.0 bpa. If weather is less of a factor, exports and demand will have to pick up the slack. Last week, export inspections of 59.9 MB were a noted improvement over the previous week but were below the average of 74.9 MB that must be shipped weekly to meet USDA’s target of 2.750 BB. While the Trump Administration has made trade deals with Japan, Mexico, South Korea, and others, details about ag products are lacking. The bottom line in corn is that positive news is mostly absent.
Bean Outlook
Weather could still be a factor for soybeans, but time is running out as 76 percent of the crop is in the bloom stage while 41 percent is setting pods, plus no threats are in the forecast for the next couple of weeks. Last week, the crop rating jumped 2 points to a 5-year high at 79 percent in good-to-excellent condition—3 points above a year ago. According to Ag Watch’s yield estimate, this equates to a national yield of 51.6 bpa compared to USDA’s estimate of 52.5 bpa. Looking at exports, inspections last week were 15.0 MB and below the average of 26.1 MB that must be shipped weekly to meet USDA’s target of 1.865 BB. For the eighth consecutive week, China was a no show. Meanwhile, the U.S. and China did not reach a trade agreement in Sweden this week, but there is hope that one might be met by the August 12th tariff deadline. While that could happen, it may only be a token agreement as China’s primary source for soybeans is Brazil, and that is unlikely to change. The bottom line for soybeans is there is little supportive news.
Wheat Outlook:
There is not much fresh news in wheat other than harvest of the winter crop is winding down at 80 percent complete compared to the average of 81 percent, while harvest of the spring crop is just beginning. Following export inspections that were a marketing year high a couple of weeks ago, they slid to 10.6 MB last week. They must average 15.5 MB each week for USDA’s projection of 850 MB to be met. The bottom line in wheat is that it will likely follow the direction of corn unless a ceasefire agreement is reached between Russia and Ukraine. However, that may not happen until later this winter.
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