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Corn Outlook:
It is tough to paint a pretty picture for corn with the USDA increasing their acreage estimate 2.5 million, the yield at a record 188.1 bpa, production to an all-time high of 16.7 BB, and ending stocks at 2.117 BB, the highest since 2018. Feed consumption was raised 250 MB, but there may be a bone to pick there as the cattle inventory is at a 70-year low. Meanwhile, exports are projected to rise 200 MB to 2.875 BB, largely because of a 3.5-million-ton increase in the imports of Mexico, Egypt, and the EU. For USDA’s target to be reached, we must ship 55.2 MB each week, which is doable, unless President Trump’s tariff policy ruffles some feathers and creates an issue. Last week’s inspections were 58.2 MB. The bottom line in corn is there is a mountainous supply.
Bean Outlook
Soybeans got a boost this week from the USDA lowering ending stocks 20 MB to 290 MB even though their yield estimate was raised to 53.6 bpa. This was largely because of a 2.5 million acre reduction in planted acres. Their ending stocks estimate is the lowest since 2022. While this casts a positive light, it could be snuffed out by China. President Trump, this week, extended the tariff deadline, due to expire on August 12th, for 90 days until December 9th. This was because no agreement has been reached in their negotiations so far. The bottom line is that it will be difficult in persuading China to increase their imports of U.S. soybeans because of the investment they have made in Brazil’s infrastructure. Their goal is to reduce their reliance on the U.S. Meanwhile, there have been no shipments of soybeans to China for 10 consecutive weeks. If their lack of purchases continues into late September-early October, demand will become a great concern.
Wheat Outlook:
Wheat does not have much of a story to tell. The USDA lowered their ending stocks estimate 21 MB to 869, largely because of a 25 MB increase in exports to 875 MB. For this to be met, we must ship 17.0 MB each week. Last week, inspections were 13.4 MB. The bottom line in wheat is the funds are short but may not have much incentive to cover unless exports pick up, or there is a reduction in planted acres this fall.
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