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Corn Outlook:
Near ideal weather this growing season has everyone eyeing the prospect for a record yield and production in next week’s crop report for corn. Last week, the crop rating stood unchanged at 73 percent in good-to-excellent condition and is 6-points higher than a year ago. According to Ag Watch’s yield model, this equates to a national yield of 184.5 bpa versus USDA’s estimate of 181.0 bpa. Since we are staring at a potential record crop, demand will be paramount. This could be a slippery slope as the cattle inventory is at a 70-year low which means exports and ethanol usage will have to play a greater role. Last week, export inspections were below the previous at 47.5 MB. The bottom line is we face a headwind from global exports for 2025-26 that are projected to be 3.3 million tons more than a year ago, while the U.S. is forecast to be down 1.9 million.
Bean Outlook
The window for weather as a factor in soybeans is waning as the forecast for the next 2 weeks is non-threatening. Expectations are that next week’s crop report will show an increase in yield and production. Although the crop rating last week fell one point to 69 percent in the good-to-excellent category, it is one point above a year ago. According to Ag Watch’s yield model, this equates to a national yield of 51.2 bpa compared to USDA’s estimate of 52.5 bpa. Right now, the tough question facing soybeans is exports. Last week, inspections exceeded the previous week at 22.5 MB, but China was a no show for the ninth consecutive week. The U.S. and China were in negotiations last week, but the prospect for a trade deal boosting ag products remains in the dark. As mentioned in previous comments, China’s primary source for soybeans is Brazil, and getting them to switch extra business to the U.S. could be a challenge.
Wheat Outlook:
Fresh news in wheat is mostly non-existent. Harvest of the winter wheat crop is approaching the finish line at 86 percent complete, while the spring crop harvest is just getting underway at 5 percent done. Export inspections last week were impressive at 22.5 MB and above the average of 16.4 MB that must be shipped weekly to meet USDA’s target of 850 MB. For now, the pace is exceeding the level for it to be reached.
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