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Corn Outlook:
Corn harvest is beginning in the southern areas of the Midwest with exceptional yields being reported, and a record crop waiting in the wings. This means storage space will be at a premium and weigh on basis levels. To offset the record supply, strong demand will be needed with exports having to shoulder the load. They have been exceptional this season because of increased imports from Mexico. Last week, inspections were strong, exceeding the previous week at 55.3 MB. Looking at the 2025-26 marketing year, USDA projects exports at 2.875 BB. To meet that mark, we must ship 55.2 MB each week. Currently, the 4-week average is 51.7 MB per week. Meanwhile, there will be no shortage of global competition, especially with Argentina boosting their acreage 9.6 percent from a year ago. The bottom line is it will be a challenge to reach USDA’s target. That said, corn could face a long road.
Bean Outlook
Soybeans have come under pressure recently, as a trade deal has still not developed with China. As it stands now, it may be November or December before one occurs, if then. Meanwhile, export inspections last week were slightly better than expected at 17.4 MB. However, China was a no show again and continues to source their needs from South America. They have not received a shipment of U.S. soybeans since the first week of June. As mentioned in previous comments, their interest in the U.S. does not develop until late September or early October. However, there are no assurances that will happen this time, as there are reports of China buying soybeans from Brazil for this period. The bottom line is the market needs bullish news to offset China’s lack of interest. Otherwise, current values may not be sustainable.
Wheat Outlook:
Wheat is mostly void of positive news. Exports have been exceptional with inspections last week at 29.4 MB. To reach USDA’s target of 875 MB, we must ship 16.1 MB on a weekly basis. So far, they have averaged 23.1 MB over the last 4 weeks. However, a price response by the market is lacking. This is likely because of stagnant global values. Meanwhile, the spring wheat harvest is 72 percent complete compared to 67 percent a year ago and 71 percent for the average.
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