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Corn Outlook:
Pass the antiacid pills please! The erratic price swings in the grains, and increased volatility caused by the Iran conflict, is keeping traders stomachs tied in knots. Although President Trump says they are in negotiations to end the war, Iran continues to target attacks against Israel and the Gulf Arab States. Until a definite end is in sight, price volatility will persist. Meanwhile, corn is marking time until after the planting intentions report on March 31st, while the EPA granting an emergency waver for E-15 sales nationwide this summer is offering support. Exports continue to be a bright spot with inspections last week of 66.9 MB. However, they were slightly below the average of 67.1 MB that must be shipped weekly to meet USDA’s projection of 3.3 BB. Currently, the pace is running marginally below the level for it to be met. The bottom line is that exports are holding their own, but there is no shortage of stocks.
Bean Outlook
While the focus remains on the conflict in the Middle East, optimism has risen from the rescheduling of the summit between President Trump and Xi of China to mid-May. Traders are hopeful of a deal being made that involves China purchasing additional U.S. soybeans. If an agreement is made, it will likely involve political favors to the Chinese as Brazil is a much cheaper source. Meanwhile, exports are holding their own with inspections last week exceeding the previous week at 40.4 MB. China took 24.4 MB of the shipments. The bottom line in soybeans is the funds are holding their largest long position in over 3 years betting on a deal with China. However, Brazil is cheaper and sporting a record crop. If an agreement is not reached, or it is disappointing, the bulls could face a strong backlash.
Wheat Outlook:
Wheat is in a quagmire because of the conflict with Iran halting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and weather in the Plains which has been unfavorable recently. Meanwhile, exports improved last week with inspections of 16.8 MB. However, this was below the average of 18.6 MB that must be shipped each week to meet USDA’s target of 900 MB. Currently, the pace of shipments is running slightly behind for it to be met.
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