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Corn Outlook:
Developments surrounding the war with Iran continue to dominate the news headlines, but their impact in the grains is becoming less. Traders realize a settlement will probably come later, rather than sooner because of President Trump extending the cease fire. Meanwhile, the growing season is upon us with the fundamentals coming more into play. Drought encompasses areas of the Midwest, which is starting to draw some attention and will be a focus in the weeks ahead. Looking at corn, planting is well underway at 11 percent complete, which is par with a year ago and ahead of the average of 9 percent. Exports remain strong with inspections last week at 65.7 MB. However, this was slightly below the average of 66.5 MB that must be shipped weekly to meet USDA’s target of 3.3 MB. Be aware that exports typically peak by May, stocks are abundant, meaning weather may have to play a bigger role for the market to move higher.
Bean Outlook
Little has been mentioned recently about the scheduled meeting in mid-May between President Trump and Xi of China. Meanwhile, optimism remains of a trade deal in which China agrees to purchase additional U.S. soybeans. However, this may be putting the cart before the horse as China’s imports for 2026 are expected to decline 6.1 percent from a year ago. Also, be aware that Brazil sports a record crop, and is a cheaper source. Looking at exports, inspections last week were 27.5 MB with China taking shipments of 16.3 MB. However, the pace of shipments to them has fallen the past couple of weeks. Meanwhile, planting is off to a fast start at 12 percent complete compared to 7 percent a year ago and 5 percent for the average. The bottom line in soybeans is that the blockade of Iran’s ports, who supplies China with 10 percent of their oil imports, leaves a lot of stones unturned.
Wheat Outlook:
Wheat is underpinned from frost occurring in the southern Plains last weekend and continued dry conditions. Last week, the rating of the winter wheat crop fell 4 points to 30 percent in good-to-excellent condition and compares to last year’s rating of 45 percent. Meanwhile, the rating for Kansas fell 8 points. Export inspections were better than expected last week at 19.0 MB but were below the average of 22.0 MB that must be shipped each week to meet USDA’s target of 900 MB. Currently, shipments are on track for 860 MB.
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