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Corn Outlook:
The grains are in a quandary as President Trump said the war with Iran is coming to an end while threatening additional bombing if they do not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. He said the U.S. would escort commercial ships through the strait; however, Iran vows to attack any armed force that approaches it. Both sides continue to negotiate, but traders are skeptical. Meanwhile, looking at corn, planting is progressing without a glitch, and is 38 percent complete, which is par with a year ago and compares to the average of 34 percent. Although exports generally peak by May, they are holding up well with inspections last week a marketing year high of 79.8 MB. USDA’s export projection is 3.3 BB, but if the current pace continues, it might reach 3.375 BB. While this is supportive, keep in mind that the long position of the index funds has risen to 2.005 BB, the largest since March 2025, and suggests that much of the bullish news has been factored into values.
Bean Outlook
Optimism remains surrounding the meeting scheduled later this month between President Trump and Xi of China. Hopes are high that China will purchase additional soybeans from the U.S. However, their agreeing to a deal may turn out to be a bird in the bush, rather than one in the hand, as Brazil has harvested a record crop, and is a cheaper source. The confidence in a deal arising from the meeting can be seen from the long position of the index funds growing to a record 1.150 BB. Bottom line—the air could be let out quickly if the meeting is a disappointment. Looking at exports, inspections last week were disappointing, a marketing year low of 16.5 MB. Since the first week of February, the pace of shipments has fallen nearly 52 percent.
Wheat Outlook:
Wheat has been under pressure as the decline of the crop in the southern Plains appears to be factored into values. Meanwhile, it may be stabilizing as the rating improved one-point last week to 31 percent in good-to-excellent condition but is down from last year’s rating of 51 percent. Looking at exports, they are not winning any prizes even though inspections last week exceeded the previous week at 15.9 MB. For USDA’s projection of 900 MB to be met, we must ship 26.9 MB each week for the next 3 weeks.
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