If you would like to receive our technical comments including price projections and cycle analysis for important tops and bottoms, click on the link at the bottom of the commentary to sign up for a 30-day free trial subscription. Follow Ag Watch Market Advisors on Facebook and Twitter for timely information not posted in
Corn Outlook:
The grains have had a lot on their plate this week with President Trump rejecting Iran’s peace proposal, USDA’s release of the May crop report, and the summit meeting between Trump and Xi of China. Rejection of the peace proposal supported the grains earlier this week, but they have since turned lower. Looking at corn, ending stocks of 1.957 BB for 2026-27 are abundant, but world stocks have been lowered 19.5 million tons to 277.5 million, the lowest since 2014. Meanwhile, global stocks-to-usage of 21.1 percent are the lowest since 2013. The bottom line in corn is the fundamentals are improving because of tighter global stocks and the passing of year-round E-15 ethanol sales. However, Brazil will be a strong competitor as their exports were raised 1.0 million tons and are a cheaper source.
Bean Outlook
For weeks, soybeans have been underpinned from optimism of China increasing U.S. purchases. However, China made the comment during the summit meeting on Thursday that they fulfilled their agreement when they purchased 12 million tons earlier this year. Their remark sent prices lower for the day. USDA increasing U.S. exports for 2026-27 by 100 MB from a year ago could make a deal with China possible but raising Brazil’s exports 2.5 million tons casts doubts. China is forecast to increase their imports by 2.0 million tons, but they may source Brazil as they are the cheaper source. Last week, the funds increased their long position by 155 MB to 715 MB, meaning much of the anticipation for China purchasing soybeans has been built into values.
Wheat Outlook:
Conditions of the wheat crop in the southern Plains continue to deteriorate. Last week, the rating of the winter wheat crop fell 3 points to 28 percent in good-to-excellent condition. The decline in the crop over the past several weeks prompted the USDA to slash their ending stocks estimate by 173 MB to 762 MB, the lowest since 2023. World stocks also fell 4.2 million tons to 275.0 million. While the fundamentals are improving, exports are forecast to decline 135 MB to 775 MB. This is because we are higher priced than our competitors.
Comments and suggestions are provided for information purposes only. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed to its accuracy or completeness. Readers using the information contained herein are responsible for their own actions. No presentations can be made that recommendations will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. This information is neither an offer to sell nor solicitation to buy of the commodity futures mentioned herein. The writer may be trading in the commodities mentioned