Corn and soybeans traders were apprehensive today. The dollar was stronger, the stock market struggled, while gold and crude were lower. Bernanke spoke yesterday reinforcing previous statements that the economy is slow and additional stimulus may be needed. This may have spooked traders causing them to even positions ahead of the weekend.
December corn was weaker today and is showing signs of topping. Yesterday’s
On The Money comments mentioned that we might trade higher to 597-602, but that prices are vulnerable to a setback lasting 5-8 days or longer. Today’s weakness indicates that we may be ready for a break. If there is follow through selling on Monday, look for a 10% decline. Longer term, the wave pattern shows the potential of trading higher with a top developing between late October and mid-November.
Sales should currently be at the 50 percent level.
Soybeans:November soybeans rallied to 1204.5 today stopping short of the target mentioned in yesterday’s comments at 1205. Price are showing signs of topping. If we close below 1175 on Monday, look for a decline and potential closing of the gap below 1150. As mentioned in previous comments, soybeans could be close to making a major top. Be alert for a sales recommendation (for subscribers to my daily newsletter; make sure you sign up for a free 1-month subscription) that may be forthcoming.
Right now, sales should currently be at the 45 percent mark. The unsold portion of the crop is protected with a long November 940 put.
December wheat was stronger today because of continued dryness in the Plains. Short-term, unless there is a sell-off, the wave pattern shows the potential of climbing past the recent high and challenging the run up in September.
Old crop sales should be at the 70 percent level.
Producers can actually lose money in a bull market. How? They fail to act when the market tops, then wait around for a recovery as they worry about lost potential revenue, as the market slips below their own break even. The only way to avoid this scenario is by creating a plan and sticking to it.
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Comments and suggestions are provided for information purposes only. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed to its accuracy or completeness. Readers using the information contained herein are responsible for their own actions. No presentations can be made that recommendations will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. This information is neither an offer to sell nor solicitation to buy of the commodity futures mentioned herein. The writer may be trading in the commodities mentioned.