If you would like to receive our technical comments including price projections and cycle analysis for important tops and bottoms, click on the link at the bottom of the commentary to sign up for a 30-day free trial subscription. Follow Ag Watch Market Advisors on Facebook and Twitter for timely information not posted in our
The government shutdown has entered its fifth week leaving traders and the industry in the dark as many reports are lacking. However, most are muddling through the inconvenience and have a greater interest in the trade meeting between the U.S. and China on January 30th-31st. Optimism is high that the negotiations will be positive. Recently, it has been rumored that China might be in the market for 2-5 million tons of corn. Meanwhile, reports of sales are limited as the daily reporting system is unavailable. Looking at exports, inspections last week were 43.6 MB and below the average of 51.2 MB that must be shipped each week to reach USDA’s target of 2.450 BB. Right now, shipments are on track for 1.925 BB. However, if China takes 5.0 million tons, they could be bumped up to 2.123 BB.
Soybeans continue to be underpinned from optimism of positive developments in the trade meeting with China on January 30th-31st. Whether the enthusiasm lives up to expectations is another matter. Meanwhile, dry weather remains in areas of southern Brazil. However, it will soon become less of a concern as harvest is getting underway at 6-7 percent complete. Looking at exports, inspections last week at 40.8 MB were the best seen since late October. China took 7.6 MB, but this was not unexpected because of recent purchases.
News that Russia may cut back on shipments has given wheat a boost. In addition, rumors are floating that China may have an interest in purchasing 7.0 million tons. Last week, inspections were 18.8 MB and must average 25.5 MB on a weekly basis to meet USDA’s target of 1.0 BB. Currently, they are on track for 811 MB. However, if China were to purchase 7.0 million tons, it could lift exports to the 1.0 BB mark.
Want the kind of intel that helps serious producers succeed? Sign up for a FREE! trial subscription to our daily newsletters. ]
Comments and suggestions are provided for information purposes only. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed to its accuracy or completeness. Readers using the information contained herein are responsible for their own actions. No presentations can be made that recommendations will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. This information is neither an offer to sell nor solicitation to buy of the commodity futures mentioned herein. The writer may be trading in the commodities mentioned.