On The Money Grain Commentary 1-24-19

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Corn Outlook:


The government shutdown has entered its fifth week leaving traders and the industry in the dark as many reports are lacking.  However, most are muddling through the inconvenience and have a greater interest in the trade meeting between the U.S. and China on January 30th-31st.  Optimism is high that the negotiations will be positive.  Recently, it has been rumored that China might be in the market for 2-5 million tons of corn.  Meanwhile, reports of sales are limited as the daily reporting system is unavailable.   Looking at exports, inspections last week were 43.6 MB and below the average of 51.2 MB that must be shipped each week to reach USDA’s target of 2.450 BB.  Right now, shipments are on track for 1.925 BB.  However, if China takes 5.0 million tons, they could be bumped up to 2.123 BB.


Bean Outlook:


Soybeans continue to be underpinned from optimism of positive developments in the trade meeting with China on January 30th-31st.  Whether the enthusiasm lives up to expectations is another matter.  Meanwhile, dry weather remains in areas of southern Brazil.  However, it will soon become less of a concern as harvest is getting underway at 6-7 percent complete.  Looking at exports, inspections last week at 40.8 MB were the best seen since late October.  China took 7.6 MB, but this was not unexpected because of recent purchases.


Wheat Outlook:


News that Russia may cut back on shipments has given wheat a boost.  In addition, rumors are floating that China may have an interest in purchasing 7.0 million tons.  Last week, inspections were 18.8 MB and must average 25.5 MB on a weekly basis to meet USDA’s target of 1.0 BB.  Currently, they are on track for 811 MB.  However, if China were to purchase 7.0 million tons, it could lift exports to the 1.0 BB mark.


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