On The Money Grain Commentary 4-26-18

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Corn Outlook:

Grain producers may have to bring out the pontoon boats to get the corn crop planted! It has been a frustrating spring as they have been dodging rain drops to get it in the ground. As of last week, only 5 percent of the crop had been planted compared to 15 percent a year ago and 14 percent for the average. However, traders are confident that the crop can get planted in a short period of time. Looking at the funds, they have trimmed their longs to 810 MB. This could offer support later in the growing season. Meanwhile, exports continue to sizzle with inspections last week the second highest of the season at 67.6 MB. The chances are the USDA will raise their target from 2.225 BB in next month’s report.

Bean Outlook:

Ongoing concerns regarding China’s threat of an import tariff on soybeans, a potential increase in acres, and sluggish exports continue to weigh on values. Inspections last week were above the previous week at 17.2 MB, but below the average needed to reach USDA’s projection of 2.065 BB. The decline in the pace of shipments over the past several weeks leaves the door open for lowering their target. Meanwhile, planting has begun and is 2 percent complete which is par for the average. Looking at the funds, they increased their longs 75 MB last week to 785 MB.

Wheat Outlook:

Record global stocks and sluggish exports have been like an 800-pound gorilla sitting on the back of wheat. However, the market has shown some encouraging signs of life this week. Currently, the rating for winter wheat is at 31 percent in good-to-excellent condition, the lowest since 1996. Meanwhile, inspections last week improved to 22.7 MB. It will be a photo finish as to whether USDA’s export projection of 925 MB can be reached. While the funds have been liquidating their short position since January, they are still hanging on to 315 MB. Although the market continues to deal with some bearish influences, the deterioration of the winter wheat crop is starting to get some traction.

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