On The Money Grain Commentary 6-22-17

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Corn Outlook:

The corn crop is off to a less than perfect start, but conditions have not deteriorated enough to trigger an advance in values. Last week, the rating remained unchanged at 67 percent of the crop in good-to-excellent condition. This is 2 points below the 10-year average. According to Ag Watch’s yield model, this equates to a national yield of 168.0 bpa versus USDA’s estimate of 170.7 bpa. Meanwhile, a firestorm could develop at the end of the month, namely the June 30th Quarterly Grain Stocks and Planted Acreage Reports. Both reports have a history of being a potential game changer. With the uncertainty surrounding acres lost this season from flooding, this report will be no exception. In other developments, export inspections last week were strong at 47.9 MB. The funds were active reducing their short position 530 MB to 325 MB.

Bean Outlook:

There is little fresh news in soybeans with the crop rating improving one point to 67 percent in good-to-excellent condition. This is par with the 10-year average and, according to Ag Watch’s yield model, equates to a national yield of 50.6 bpa versus USDA’s estimate of 48.0 bpa. Looking at exports, inspections last week were mundane at 10.1 MB. The funds covered 90 MB of their short position last week reducing it to 530 MB. Right now, the market needs a catalyst to give it a boost, but nothing is on the horizon until the stocks and acreage report later this month.

Wheat Outlook:

The rating in spring wheat was whacked again last week falling 4 points to 41 percent of the crop in good-to-excellent condition. This is well below the 10-year average of 75 percent. With hot, dry conditions being reported in France and Ukraine, along with problems in Australia, it should offer support. Meanwhile, winter wheat harvest is moving along at 28 percent complete versus the 10-year average of 25 percent. Exports for the second week of the marketing year were routine at 27.1 MB. The funds were active last week reducing their short position 90 MB to 610 MB. If conditions in Europe continue to deteriorate, additional short covering by them is expected.

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