On The Money Grain Commentary 10-10-19

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Corn Outlook:

USDA refuses to cut corn any slack. In the October Crop Report, they raised the yield 0.2 bpa to 168.4 bpa but lowered harvested acres 200,000 to 81.8 million. Ending stocks fell 261 MB to 1.929 BB. Global stocks are down 3.7 million tons to 302.6 million. This is 6.4 percent less than a year ago. Traders were expecting a bigger cut in yields making the report a disappointment for the bulls. Meanwhile, the lagging maturity of the crop is keeping harvest at a snail’s pace at 15 percent versus the average of 27 percent. With freezing cold and snow forecast in the upper Midwest, coupled with significant lagging maturity, yields could be impacted. Meanwhile, another factor weighing on corn is exports. Inspections last week were a paltry 18.3 MB with cumulative shipments running only 34 percent of a year ago. USDA lowered them 150 MB to 1.9 BB in today’s report

Bean Outlook:

The USDA was kinder to soybeans than corn in that they lowered their yield estimate 1.0 bpa to 46.9 bpa and reduced harvested acres 300,000 to 75.6 million. This resulted in ending stocks falling 180 MB to 460 MB. Meanwhile, global stocks are down 4.0 million tons to 95.2 million. This is a decline of 13.4 percent from a year ago. The report gives the bulls some fodder. In other developments, the lagging maturity in soybeans is keeping soybean harvest at a crawl at 14 percent done compared to the average of 34 percent. In addition, the winter storm in the forecast for the upper Midwest will probably pull yields lower. Meanwhile, Brazil’s soybean planting is off to a slow start at 3.1 percent versus 9.5 percent a year ago. This is their slowest pace since 2013-14. In other developments, exports to China have slowed, but inspections last week were a marketing year high of 38.1 MB. So far, cumulative shipments are running 17 percent above a year ago.

Wheat Outlook:

In the October Crop Report, the USDA raised ending stocks of wheat 29 MB to 1.043 BB. Global stocks are up 1.3 million tons to 287.8 million for an increase of 3.6 percent above last year. There is not much here for the bulls. In other developments, winter wheat planting is holding its own at 52 percent complete versus the average of 53 percent. Export inspections last week were nothing to get excited about at 14.1 MB but cumulative shipments are running nearly 21 percent above a year ago.

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