On The Money Grain Commentary 10-24-19

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Corn Outlook:

Corn may not have much of a story to tell until the November 8th crop report. At that time, the USDA will hopefully give us a better insight toward yields, harvested acres, and the impact of the winter storm in the upper Midwest a couple of weeks ago. However, do not hold your breath as they may not give us answers to these questions until the January report. In the meantime, the market has a big problem with terrible exports. Inspections last week were 20.9 MB and must average 39.5 MB each week to achieve USDA’s projection of 1.9 BB. Right now, they are on track for 947 MB. Looking at harvest, it is progressing slowly at 30 percent complete versus the average of 47 percent. The lateness in maturity and harvest is corn’s primary support.

Bean Outlook:

The focus in soybeans remains on getting a trade deal with China. A report from Bloomberg said that they may buy $20 billion of ag products in the first year. Both sides are working hard in finalizing an agreement, but according to President Trump, a deal may not be signed until mid-November. At any rate, traders seem more optimistic that one will happen as the funds have flipped from a short to a long position, their first since June 2018. In other developments, harvest continues to lag at 46 percent complete compared to the average of 64 percent. Looking at exports, inspections last week were a marketing year high at 47.6 MB. However, China only took 2.5 MB. Since mid-September shipments to them have been on the downswing. Keep in mind that even with a trade deal, Brazil will remain China’s primary source for soybeans.

Wheat Outlook:

Wheat’s strength the past month has come mostly from dryness in areas of Australia and Argentina. Winter wheat planting is progressing at 77 percent complete compared to the average of 75 percent. Looking at exports, inspections last week were 20.7 MB and above the average of 18.1 MB that must be shipped on a weekly basis to reach USDA’s target of 950 MB. Currently, shipments are on track for 922 MB.

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