On The Money Grain Commentary 11-14-19

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Corn Outlook:

Corn is like a ship without a rudder. Stocks are declining but so is demand. Exports are horrendous, and a carryout of 1.9 BB is more than adequate to meet usage. Meanwhile, no production threats are on the horizon in South America. That said, the bulls may be content to stay in their pen until the January Crop Report. In other developments, export inspections were better than expected at 22.0 MB. This was the second highest of the season but is well short of the 39.9 MB needed to be shipped each week to reach USDA’s target of 1.850 BB. Currently, we are on track for 892 MB. Looking at harvest, it continues to creep along at 66 percent complete versus the average of 85 percent. North Dakota is behind the most at 61 percent below its average.

Bean Outlook:

Traders are losing patience in getting an agreement inked with China as evident by the sell-off in soybeans this week. For months, their emotions have been running high in expectations of a deal. However, news of signing an agreement has run hot and cold in the past. Meanwhile, Brazil’s planting is 58 percent complete versus the average of 57 percent and is accompanied with improving weather. In other developments, exports remain strong with inspections last week of 48.9 MB. China took 28.0 MB. Keep in mind that exports generally peak by the third week of November and can fall as much as 60-80 percent. Looking at harvest, it is 85 percent complete versus the average of 92 percent. Meanwhile, North Dakota lags its average by 24 percent.

Wheat Outlook:

There is not a great deal of fresh news in wheat as winter wheat planting is winding down and global stocks are at a record. Fifty-four percent of the crop is in good-to-excellent condition, down 3 points from the previous week. Dry weather continues in Australia, but it has not been a great concern. While the USDA left U.S. exports unchanged at 950 MB, we will face plenty of competition from the EU, Russia, and Ukraine as their exports were raised 2.0 million tons. Last week, inspections were higher than expected at 19.4 MB and above the average of 18.2 MB that must be shipped each week to achieve USDA’s target of 950 MB. Currently, we are on track for 950 MB.

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