On The Money Grain Commentary 11-9-23

If you would like to receive our technical comments including price projections and cycle analysis for important tops and bottoms, click on the link at the bottom of the commentary to sign up for a 30-day free trial subscription. Follow Ag Watch Market Advisors on Facebook and Twitter for timely information not posted in our blog

Corn Outlook:

A varied weather pattern in Brazil, wet conditions in the north and dryness in the south, has received some attention in the corn market, but to a greater extent in soybeans. A greater concern for corn is exports. Last week, inspections were modest at 21.0 MB. For the past 4 weeks, the pace of shipments has averaged 19.0 MB, which is well below the 5-year average of 21.4 MB for this time of the year. Looking at harvest, it will soon cross the finish line and is 80 percent done. In other matters, the USDA raised their yield estimate for corn to 174.9 bpa which was higher than the trade guess, and above last month’s estimate of 173.0 bpa. Ending stocks rose 45 MB to 2.156 BB with global stocks up 2.6 million tons to 315.0 million. The bottom line is there is nothing friendly in the report for the bulls.

Bean Outlook

Soybean futures have been underpinned the past few weeks from weather concerns in Brazil. However, that is usually the norm during their planting period which is currently 51 percent complete compared to 57 percent a year ago. Values have also been supported from increased interest by China. Last week, export inspections were 76.6 MB with China taking 57.0 MB. The average pace of shipments during the past 4 weeks has been 77.5 MB, which is slightly below the 5-year average of 78.6 MB for this time of the year. Be aware that shipments usually peak by mid-November and decline, on average, 80 percent through the end of the marketing year. Meanwhile, harvest is chugging along at 91 percent complete and will end shortly. In other matters, the USDA raised their yield estimate for soybeans to 49.9 bpa which was above the trade guess and last month’s estimate of 49.6 bpa. Ending stocks are up 25 MB to 245 MB while world stocks fell 1.1 million tons to 114.1 million because of the increase in crushings. Overall, the report is disappointing.

Wheat Outlook:

Winter wheat planting is 90 percent done and will soon wrap up. Last week, the crop rating improved 2 points to 50 percent in good-to-excellent condition and compares to last year’s rating of 30 percent. Meanwhile, exports are a sticking point with inspections a marketing year low of only 2.6 MB. For the past 4 weeks, the pace of shipments has been 7.2 MB, which is well below the 5-year average of 9.5 MB for this time of the year. In other developments, the USDA raised ending stocks 14 MB to 684 MB with global stocks up 600,000 tons to 258.7 million. The report is disappointing.

Comments and suggestions are provided for information purposes only. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed to its accuracy or completeness. Readers using the information contained herein are responsible for their own actions. No presentations can be made that recommendations will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. This information is neither an offer to sell nor solicitation to buy of the commodity futures mentioned herein. The writer may be trading in the commodities mentioned.