On The Money Grain Commentary 3-12-20

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Corn Outlook:

The water is still muddy in the financial and grain markets as the coronavirus has been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization. Adding to the misery, Saudi Arabia has lowered oil prices in response to a dispute with Russia, plus travel from Europe is being suspended for 30 days by President Trump. This is increasing fear of a global recession. Normally, discussions this time of the year in the grains center around weather and planting. However, that has not been the case this season as the financial markets are in the full panic mode hitting the grains from several angles. This has created an increase in volatility that may persist a while longer. Meanwhile, exports are improving. Inspections last week were 32.6 MB but below the average of 45.4 MB that must be shipped each week to reach USDA’s projection of 1.725 BB.

Bean Outlook:

Worries over the coronavirus and plunge in the financial markets continue to plague soybeans as well as well as a large crop in Brazil that is 50 percent harvested. Concerns are that the terms in the Phase I trade agreement may have to be restructured if China cannot meet them. Meanwhile, exports are struggling with inspections last week—a marketing year low of 21.0 MB. We must ship 28.7 MB each week to meet USDA’s target of 1.825 BB. Since November, the pace of shipments has fallen 55 percent. Last week, China took 5.1 MB, but that was above the previous week’s shipments of only 2.3 MB.

Wheat Outlook:

Wheat continues to trend lower following corn and soybeans. The crop is coming out of dormancy and needs moisture in the western section of the southern Plains. Exports have improved since January but still face competition from our competitors. Weakness in the dollar recently should help. Inspections last week were mundane at 15.2 MB. This was below the average of 24.4 MB that must be shipped on a weekly basis to reach USDA’s projection of 1.0 BB.

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