On The Money Grain Commentary 4-11-24

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Corn Outlook:

The fundamentals in corn are showing a few signs of improvement, but progress will be slow to develop. Meanwhile, exports have been on the upswing lately, as inspections last week at 55.9 MB were the second highest of the marketing year. Since the third week of January, the export pace has risen 76 percent and is on track to meet USDA’s projection of 2.1 BB. In other matters, USDA lowered ending stocks 25 MB to 2.122 BB, and reduced global stocks 1.3 million tons to 318.3 million. Argentina’s crop was down 1.0 million tons to 55 million, while Brazil was left unchanged at 124.0 million. The bottom line in corn is that although the fundamentals are improving somewhat, stocks remain elevated, and Mother Nature will probably have to intervene with a planting delay or production threat to force the bears to abandon their convictions.

Bean Outlook

Soybeans will face hurdles this growing season, especially if the expected increase in acres materializes, and exports continue to dwindle. Because of shrinking exports, USDA has lowered their estimate 20 MB to 1.7 BB. Last week, inspections were 17.7 MB with China taking 7.9 MB. Since early November, deliveries to them have fallen 78 percent while our overall shipments have declined 76 percent. This is a testament to the competition that we face from Brazil. In other matters, USDA increased ending stocks 25 MB to 340 MB, but lowered global stockpiles 100,000 tons to 114.2 million. All eyes were on Brazil’s production, but it was left unchanged at 155 million tons, as well as Argentina at 50 million. The bottom line in soybeans is that unless Mother Nature intervenes during the growing season, there is little to captivate bullish interest.

Wheat Outlook:

There is not much news in wheat. The crop rating last week was unchanged at 56 percent in good-to-excellent condition and compares to last year’s rating of 27 percent. Meanwhile, exports are showing signs of improvement with inspections last week the highest of the marketing year at 18.2 MB. However, they have a long road ahead to meet USDA’s target of 710 MB. In other matters, USDA raised ending stocks 25 MB to 698 MB, but lowered global stockpiles 500,000 tons to 258.3 million.

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