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Inflationary concerns are keeping a floor under corn. While the Ukraine-Russia conflict is causing a supply disruption in the Black Sea Region, it is old news. In the meantime, weather is beginning to get more attention as the forecast in the Midwest for the next couple of weeks shows scattered showers could limit field work and planting. Although planting has just begun, it is off to a slow start at 4 percent complete compared to the average of 6 percent. With expectations for fewer planted acres of corn this season, any delays will keep the bulls engaged. In other matters, export inspections last week were 44.8 MB and must average 59.6 MB each week to reach USDA’s target of 2.5 BB. While China has been a solid buyer of corn, the pace of shipments to them has fallen 3.3 percent since early March and could be a sign that they are backing away.
News in soybeans is sparse. Inflationary pressures are supporting values while the Covid lockdown in China raises questions regarding demand. Last week, export inspections were above the previous week at 35.5 MB, and more than the average of 23.0 MB needed to be shipped on a weekly basis to reach USDA’s target of 2.225 BB. Right now, the question going through everyone’s mind is how many acres could be switched to soybeans if progress in corn planting does remains slow.
Wheat is caught in a crosswind between inflationary pressures, the Ukraine-Russia conflict, a subpar U.S. crop, expectations for a record crop in Russia, and shabby exports. Last week, the rating of the winter wheat crop fell to 30 percent of the crop in good-to-excellent condition.in the This is just above the lowest reported rating of 28 percent that occurred in 1996. Meanwhile, exports improved slightly at 15.8 MB, but were below the average of 20.1 MB that must be shipped each week to reach USDA’s projection of 785 MB. Lagging exports are a concern considering the conflict.
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