On The Money Grain Commentary 4-25-24


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Corn Outlook:

Demand for U.S, corn has turned more robust recently as exports are exceptional even though the dollar is on the upswing.  Last week, inspections were a marketing year high of 63.9 MB with Mexico being the largest buyer.  This was the fourth consecutive week that exports have exceeded 50 MB.  As it stands now, they are on track to meet USDA’s target of 2.1 BB, and possibly exceed it.  However, nineteen weeks remain in the marketing year and maintaining this pace will be difficult.  In other developments, planting is 12 percent complete, which is on par with a year ago and above the average of 10 percent.  The bottom line in corn is that the fundamentals are improving but have a long way to go before a considerable rise in values can be expected.

Bean Outlook

Soybeans have been supported recently from expectations that the USDA will eventually lower their estimate for Brazil’s crop at 155.0 million tons closer to Conab’s projection of 146.5 million.  However, even if their estimate is reduced closer to Conab’s, it would still be Brazil’s third largest crop.  Meanwhile, exports continue to decline.  Last week, inspections were 15.9 MB with China taking 8.0 MB.  Since early November deliveries to them have fallen 88 percent while our overall shipments have declined 79 percent.  Right now, we are barely on track to meet USDA’s target of 1.7 BB, and their projection will be in jeopardy if the pace continues to diminish.  Meanwhile, planting is 8 percent complete, which is on par with a year ago and ahead of the average of 4 percent.  The bottom line in soybeans is that with expectations for increased acres, and exports that are on the downswing, a weather threat will probably be necessary to thwart bearish sentiment.

Wheat Outlook:

For weeks, wheat drug its feet, but has picked up the pace recently because of the missile attack by Russia against a Ukrainian port facility, and dryness in the southern Plains which has led to a decline in crop conditions.  Last week, the rating for the winter wheat crop fell 5 points to 50 percent in good-to-excellent condition but is well above last year’s rating of 26 percent.  Meanwhile, export inspections last week were 16.5 MB with the pace rising since the third week of March.  Right now, we are on track to reach USDA’s target of 710 MB, but just barely.  The bottom line in wheat is the fundamentals are improving, but the rising dollar will be an impediment to exports.

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