On The Money Grain Commentary 4-9-15

If you would like to receive our technical comments including price projections and cycle analysis for important tops and bottoms, click on the link at the bottom of the commentary to sign up for a 30-day free trial subscription.

Follow Ag Watch Market Advisors on Facebook and Twitter for timely information not posted in our commentaries.

Corn Outlook:

Traders may not be concerned now, but it is going to be an interesting growing season, as wet soil conditions in the eastern Corn Belt and the Southeast are causing planting delays, while moderate drought is expanding in the west.  The delay may induce intended corn acres in the south being switched to soybeans or grain sorghum.  Meanwhile, keep an eye on the west as abnormally dry conditions present in the Dakotas, Nebraska, Minnesota and Wisconsin are spreading into northern  Iowa and western Illinois.  The April Supply-Demand Reports shows 2014-15 ending stocks at 1.827 BB, up 50 MB from March, while world stocks rose 3.2 million tons to 188.5 million.  In other news, export inspections at 40.4 MB were the best seen in four weeks.  Last week, the trend following funds reduced their short futures position 35 MB to 145 MB.

Bean Outlook:

News is mostly scarce in soybeans as harvest is winding down in Brazil leaving traders to look at the outside markets for a direction.  So far, Brazilian producers are only 50 percent sold on the 2014-15 crop compared to 62 percent a year ago.  The April Supply-Demand Report shows 2014-15 ending stocks mostly unchanged at 370 MB, while world stocks were up slightly to 89.6 million tons.  Export inspections last week were 20.7 MB with China taking 9.0 MB or 43 percent of shipments.  The trend following funds were inactive with their short futures position remaining unchanged from a week ago at 220 MB.

Wheat Outlook:

For the past few weeks, wheat futures have faced crosscurrents from dryness in the southern Plains, improving conditions in the Black Sea region, and a strong dollar.  In the first weekly progress report of the season, USDA reports 44 percent of the wheat crop in good to excellent condition compared to 58 percent last fall and 35 percent a year ago.  The April-Supply Demand Report showed 2014-15 ending stocks down 7 MB from last month, while world stocks fell 500,000 tons to 197.2 million.  Export inspections were better than expected at 13.5 MB, but offer no bragging rights.  The trend following funds have increased their short futures position to its largest level since October at 415 MB.

Want the kind of intel that helps serious producers succeed? Sign up for a FREE! trial subscription to our daily newsletters. ]

Comments and suggestions are provided for information purposes only. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed to its accuracy or completeness. Readers using the information contained herein are responsible for their own actions. No presentations can be made that recommendations will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. This information is neither an offer to sell nor solicitation to buy of the commodity futures mentioned herein. The writer may be trading in the commodities mentioned.