On The Money Grain Commentary–5-12-22

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Corn Outlook:

Our initial look at USDA’s estimate of the 2022-23 growing season shows corn production at 14.460 BB, down 655 MB from a year ago. Ending stocks are forecast at 1.360 BB which is 80 MB less than last year. World stockpiles at 305.1, fell 4.26 million tons from a year ago. Because of the Russian invasion, Ukraine’s production is projected to drop 22.6 million tons and exports decline 14.0 million tons. Overall, the report is friendly. In other developments, corn planting continues to lag at 22 percent complete compared to 64 percent a year ago and 50 percent for the average. Meanwhile, the index funds continue to unload their longs.

Bean Outlook:

USDA projects soybean production at 4.640 BB, an increase of 205 MB from a year ago. Ending stocks for 2022-23 are 310 MB, up 75 MB from last year. World stocks are forecast at 99.6 million tons, 14.36 million more than 2021-22. There is little in the report for the bulls which means that they will have to look for adverse weather to spur interest. In other matters, soybean planting is well behind at 12 percent done versus 39 percent a year ago and 24 percent for the average. Meanwhile, the index funds continue to liquidate their longs.

Wheat Outlook:

Ending stocks of wheat for 2022-23 are projected to fall 36 MB from a year ago to 619 MB. World stockpiles are predicted to be down 12.70 million tons to 267.02 million. Because of the Russian invasion, Ukraine’s production is expected to decline 11.5 million tons with exports falling 9.0 million. Argentina, the EU, and Russia will likely fill a big part of the gap, but probably not the U.S. because of the strength in the dollar. Overall, the report is friendly for wheat. In other developments, spring wheat planting is way behind at 27 percent complete compared to 67 percent a year ago and 47 percent for the average. Meanwhile, there was a slight improvement in the winter wheat crop as the rating rose 2 points last week to 29 percent in good-to-excellent condition. In the meantime, the index funds are reining in their longs.

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