On The Money Grain Commentary 5-29-24

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Corn Outlook:

Corn planting will soon wrap up, but progress for the remainder of the crop may be drawn out because of wet conditions.  As of last week, 83 percent of the crop had been planted compared to 89 percent a year ago and 82 percent for the average.  The slow pace in planting has been a factor supporting the market, but it is on par with the average.  Looking at exports, inspections last week were 42.4 MB and below the average of 51.4 MB that must be shipped weekly to meet USDA’s projection of 2.150 BB.  Since the third week of April, the export pace has fallen 22 percent and is on track for shipments of 2.050 BB.  The bottom line in corn is that unless we fall short of USDA’s projection of 90.0 million planted acres, current values will be difficult to maintain without a sharp increase in exports, or adverse weather develops later in the growing season.


Bean Outlook

Wet conditions have kept soybean planting at a crawl, which is 68 percent complete compared to 78 percent a year ago and the average of 63 percent.  However, with progress above the average, concerns should be minimal.  Meanwhile, exports are mostly lifeless.  Inspections last week were 7.7 MB and below the average of 16.5 MB that must be shipped weekly to reach USDA’s target of 1.7 BB.  China took 2.7 MB with shipments to them only averaging 2.1 MB for the past 4 weeks.  The bottom line in soybeans is that unless there is a disruption by Mother Nature during the growing season, or a sharp pickup in exports occurs, they will face an uphill struggle.


Wheat Outlook:

Dry conditions in Russia have been the primary factor supporting wheat the past few weeks.  USDA’s production estimate for them is 91.5 million tons, but SovEcon recently lowered their projection to 82.1 million tons from 85.7 million.  While Russia’s shortfall in production could lead to an increase in US exports, it has not developed so far.  Last week, inspections were 14.6 MB, and are running short of the mark to meet USDA’s projection of 720 MB.  Meanwhile, the crop rating for winter wheat fell one-point last week to 48 percent in good-to-excellent condition and compares to last year’s rating of 34 percent.  The bottom line in wheat is that while Russia’s export prospects may decline, there must be an improvement in US shipments for prices to continue higher.

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