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Corn planting is finished, and now the questions begin. Will Mother Nature cooperate this season? So far, she has as 75 percent of the crop is rated in good-to-excellent condition, 5 percent more than the 10-year average. According to Ag Watch’s yield model, the national yield is 179.5 bpa versus USDA’s estimate of 178.5 bpa. What about demand? This is tougher to gauge because of the impact of Coved-19. Exports have improved since January but have sluffed off the past couple of weeks. Meanwhile, ending stocks for 2020-21 are projected to rise a modest 5 MB to 3.323 BB while world stocks are down 1.7 million tons to 337.9. While little can be gathered from USDA’s report for June, next month will reflect planted acres and a yield estimate based upon weekly crop conditions.
China has been an active buyer of soybeans the past 2 weeks, but the overall export pace continues to decline and is down 80 percent since peaking in November. The good news is this is about as bad as it gets. Weather remains cooperative as planting is running ahead of pace at 86 percent complete compared to 79 percent for the average. The crop is improving with 72 percent reported in good-to-excellent condition, 2 points above the previous week. This is also one point above the 10-year average. USDA projects 2020-21 ending stocks to decline 20 MB to 395 MB. This was the lowest trade guess. As a result, world stocks are forecast to fall 2.1 million tons to 96.3 million. No changes were made to China’s imports at 96.0 million tons. However, this is 2.0 million tons above a year ago. Next month’s report should provide more input.
Wheat harvest is in the early stages and is 7 percent complete which is on par with the average. Exports are nothing to brag about and off to a slow start for the new marketing year. Ending stocks of wheat for 2020-21 were higher than expected, up 16 MB to 925 MB. However, world stocks rose 6.0 million tons to 316.1 million exceeding the highest guess. This came from production increases in the EU and Ukraine as well as a reduction in Ukraine’s exports.
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