On The Money Grain Commentary 6-23-22

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Corn Outlook:

Corn came under fire this week as above normal temperatures and moisture is forecast for the western and northern areas of the Midwest through July 6th. However, rainfall in the east looks limited. It may not be an ideal forecast, but it has prompted fund liquidation in face of expectations for more interest rate hikes by the Fed to quell inflation. Meanwhile, the rating slipped 2 points last week to 70 percent of the crop in good-to-excellent condition and compares to a rating of 65 percent a year ago. According to Ag Watch’s yield rating, the national yield is 177.0 bpa which is on par with USDA’s estimate. In other developments, export inspections last week were slightly less than the previous week at 46.6 MB. They must average 57.5 MB each week to reach USDA’s target of 2.450 BB. Looking at China, the pace of shipments to them has fallen 29.5 percent since peaking in late March

Bean Outlook:

Soybeans came under pressure this week from weakness in palm oil and a less intense forecast for the western and northern sections of the Midwest. However, the growing season is just beginning, and a lot of twists and turns in the forecast are likely. Last week, the crop rating fell 2 points to 68 percent in good-to-excellent condition and compares to last year’s rating of 60 percent. According to Ag Watch’s yield model, this equates to a national yield of 52.9 bpa versus USDA’s estimate of 51.5 bpa. Looking at exports, inspections last week were below the previous week at 15.7 MB. They must average 27.2 MB to achieve USDA’s projection of 2.170 BB. Look for volatility to stay high as we approach the acreage report on June 30th.

Wheat Outlook:

Harvest pressure and Russia’s crop being raised to a record 89.2 million tons weighed on wheat this week. Meanwhile, twenty-five percent of the winter wheat crop had been harvested which was just above the average of 22 percent. Planting of the spring crop is mostly finished with a rating of 59 percent in good-to-excellent condition. This compares to last week’s rating of 54 percent and 27 percent a year ago. Export inspections were a nonevent at only 12.174 BB.

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