On The Money Grain Commentary 6-9-22

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Corn Outlook:

Corn is recovering from last week’s sell-off as Russia has shelled the export facility in Ukraine’s city of Mykolaiv, which largely limits Ukraine as a global supplier of grain. According to sources, their export capacity has been reduced to 2.0 million tons compared to 5.0 million tons before their routes were blocked. Meanwhile, planting is mostly finished with the first crop rating of the season showing 73 percent of the corn crop in good-to-excellent condition, one point above a year ago. Looking at exports, inspections last week improved slightly to 56.4 MB but were below the average of 59.8 MB needed to reach USDA’s target of 2.5 BB. Currently, the pace of shipments is running just nip and tuck in achieving it. Right now, the situation in Ukraine is the primary supportive influence in corn, plus the forecast for hotter, dryer conditions which could incentivize the bulls

Bean Outlook:

Soybeans continue to be underpinned from strength in palm and vegetable oil. However, as mentioned in a previous comment, oil led rallies are not the strongest source of support as oil is the smallest component of the crush with meal being the largest. Meanwhile, planting has mostly caught up at 78 percent complete versus the average of 79 percent. Export inspections were sluggish last week at 12.8 MB and below the average of 23.7 MB that must be shipped each week to reach USDA’s projection of 2.140 BB. Currently, the pace is running slightly below the mark for it to be achieved. The crop report will be out at the end of the week, but the biggest shaker and mover for soybeans will be the planted acreage report at the end of the month.

Wheat Outlook:

Wheat has begun to recover from its sell-off because of Russia’s escalation against port facilities in Ukraine. However, prices gains could be limited as winter wheat harvest is in its early stages at 5 percent complete. Meanwhile, planting of spring wheat continues to lag at 82 percent complete versus the average of 97 percent. Minnesota is struggling at 65 percent done, whereas they should be closer to 98 percent. Looking at exports, there is not much to say with inspections last week only nominal at 12.9 MB.

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