If you would like to receive our technical comments including price projections and cycle analysis for important tops and bottoms, click on the link at the bottom of the commentary to sign up for a 30-day free trial subscription. Follow Ag Watch Market Advisors on Facebook and Twitter for timely information not posted in our blog
The clock is ticking for a weather event to develop in corn as time will run out in a couple of weeks. While heat is in the forecast the next 2 weeks, above normal moisture is expected as well, which will keep stress at a minimum during pollination. As of last week, 69 percent of the crop was rated in good-to-excellent condition, a decline of 2 percent from the previous week. According to Ag Watch’s yield model, the national yield is 177.4 bpa compared to USDA’s estimate of 178.5 bpa. If the crop gets through pollination unscathed, exports and usage will have to carry the ball for a price recovery. This will be a challenge as usage was trimmed 115 MB from USDA’s balance sheet last week. Looking at exports, inspections were 35.5 MB with cumulative shipments walking a fine line to reach USDA’s projection of 1.650 BB. Bottom line—the market has its work cut out.
Unlike corn, it will be August before weather diminishes as a factor in soybeans. Last week, the rating fell 3 points to 68 percent of the crop in good-to-excellent condition. However, this is well above the 10-year average of 62 percent. According to Ag Watch’s yield model, the national yield is 50.2 bpa versus USDA’s estimate of 49.8 bpa. China has been active recently taking shipments of 5.8 MB last week, their highest since late April. Inspections were mostly mundane at 17.7 MB, but shipments have picked up the past couple of weeks which is promising. Meanwhile, traders are keeping a close eye on China’s reaction to sanctions placed against them by President Trump for their actions taken toward Hong Kong.
Wheat surged higher this week on reports tighter supplies in Europe and Russia, plus rumors of Chinese purchases. Export inspections last week were impressive, a marketing year high of 22.9 MB. Currently, shipments are on track for reaching USDA’s target of 950 MB. In other developments, harvest is 68 percent complete, 2 points above the average. The spring wheat crop rating fell 2 points last week 68 percent in good-to-excellent condition. While the gains in wheat have been impressive this week, additional gains are probably limited.
Comments and suggestions are provided for information purposes only. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed to its accuracy or completeness. Readers using the information contained herein are responsible for their own actions. No presentations can be made that recommendations will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. This information is neither an offer to sell nor solicitation to buy of the commodity futures mentioned herein. The writer may be trading in the commodities mentioned.