On The Money Grain Commentary 7-21-16

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Corn Outlook:

Mother Nature has played a game of cat and mouse with the bulls this month regarding hot, dry weather. July has seen above normal temperatures; however, it has been accompanied with showers producing a greenhouse effect. Meanwhile, the clock is ticking down for adverse weather being a factor in corn. To the bulls’ dismay, 76 percent of the crop is reported in good-to-excellent condition compared to 69 percent a year ago and 64 percent for the 10-year average. According to Ag Watch’s yield model, this equates to a national yield of 173.1 bpa. This suggests that a record crop could be in the making. In other developments, the funds are throwing in the towel as they liquidated 465 MB from their long position last week reducing it to 70 MB. Export inspections were 52.2 MB and short of the average needed to reach USDA’s target of 1.9 BB.

Bean Outlook:

While weather is becoming less of a factor in corn, it could still be an issue in soybeans. However, right now, the crop is in good health as reflected by a rating of 71 percent in good-to-excellent condition, unchanged from the previous week. This compares to a rating of 62 percent a year ago and 61 percent for the 10-year average. According to Ag Watch’s yield model, this translates to a national yield of 49.9 bpa. Last week, the funds shed 80 MB from their long position reducing it to 725 MB. This is down from the peak set in mid-June at 1.075 BB, and improves the market’s technical structure should a weather threat develop in August. Export inspections were mundane at 13.4 MB and below the average needed to reach USDA’s projection of 1.795 BB.

Wheat Outlook:

Wheat is resigned to be a follower of corn and soybeans with no story to tell. Harvest is 76 percent complete compared to 72 percent a year ago and the average of 73 percent. Most of the winter wheat crop is wrapped up with the focus mainly on spring wheat. Export inspections were 16.1 MB and must average 18.0 MB each week to reach USDA’s target of 925 MB. The funds are more bearish as they added 55 MB to their short position last week increasing it to 675 MB. This is short of the record set in April of 765 MB and suggests that they are becoming overextended in their position.

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