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Corn Outlook:
Bullish sentiment in the grains vanished this week from a moderating weather outlook for August. Meanwhile, the rating for corn slid 4 points last week to 63 percent of the crop in good-to-excellent condition. This compares to last year’s rating of 73 percent and is below the average of 66 percent. Although the rating fell more than expected, it stirred little support. According to Ag Watch’s yield model, the national yield is 175.9 bpa versus the USDA’s estimate of 183.0 bpa. Looking at exports, inspections last week were 58.5 MB and below the average of 71.9 MB that must be shipped weekly to meet USDA’s target of 3.325 BB. The bottom line in corn is that weather concerns have mostly run the course and demand will be key.
Bean Outlook
The bulls in soybeans were left hanging early this week when prices tumbled. They had been placing their bets on detrimental weather in August and Chinese buying to carry prices higher. The forecast for the next 2 weeks is for above normal temperatures, but not excessive heat, accompanied by normal moisture. Last week, the rating for soybeans fell 3 points to 63 percent of the crop in good-to-excellent condition. This compares to last year’s rating of 70 percent but is par with the average. However, the rating decline failed to offer support. According to Ag Watch’s yield model, the national yield is 50.9 bpa versus USDA’s estimate of 53.0 bpa. Looking at exports, China has made some purchases recently, but in small quantities. Last week, inspections were 12.8 MB and below the average of 17.5 MB that must be shipped weekly to meet USDA’s target of 1.520 BB. However, there were no shipments to China. The bottom line is that weather could be a factor in August, but time is running short. Meanwhile, whether China fulfills their agreement to purchase 25 million tons of soybeans could hinge on the mid-term election.
Wheat Outlook:
Wheat plunged early this week following corn and soybeans lower. However, it has recovered as the Ukraine-Russia conflict continues to escalate. Meanwhile, the dollar has been rising since January making U.S. exports less competitive. Although inspections last week were a marketing year high at 14.5 MB, they were below the average of 15.4 MB that must be shipped weekly to meet USDA’s target of 775 MB. Currently, we are well under the pace for it to be met. Meanwhile, harvest of the winter crop will be wrapping up shortly as it is 81 percent complete compared to 79 percent a year ago and 79 percent for the average.
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