On The Money Grain Commentary 8-18-22

If you would like to receive our technical comments including price projections and cycle analysis for important tops and bottoms, click on the link at the bottom of the commentary to sign up for a 30-day free trial subscription. Follow Ag Watch Market Advisors on Facebook and Twitter for timely information not posted in our blog.

Corn Outlook:

We have passed the halfway mark in August which means that weather, as a factor in corn, is mostly foregone with the focus turning to demand. Last week, the USDA answered some questions regarding supply when they lowered their yield estimate to 175.4 bpa and 2022-23 ending stocks to 1.388 BB. Meanwhile, global stocks are projected to be down 6.2 million tons. Ukraine’s production is forecast to be up 5.0 million tons with their exports rising 3.5 million. The crop rating fell one-point last week to 57 percent in good-to-excellent condition and compares to the 10-year average of 62 percent. According to Ag Watch’s yield model, the national yield is 171.7 bpa. Looking at exports, they were less than inspiring last week with inspections only 21.1 MB. Overall, the fundamentals for corn are positive, but it is not responding.

Bean Outlook:

While weather is still a factor in soybeans, it may fade fast as the forecast through the end of August is mostly nonthreatening. With USDA’s yield estimate of 51.9 bpa, and 2022-23 ending stocks pegged at 245 MB, the second highest on record, the bulls have their work cut out for them, especially with record production forecast in Brazil this fall. Last week, the crop rating fell one-point to 58 percent in good-to-excellent condition and compares to the 10-year average of 61 percent. According to Ag Watch’s yield model, the national yield is 51.5 bpa. Looking at exports, inspections last week were disappointing at 27.3 MB with the cumulative total at 2.031 BB. With only a couple of weeks left in the marketing year, it will be close in reaching USDA’s target of 2.160 BB. One point of interest in last week’s crop report is that China’s imports are forecast to be 8 million tons higher than a year ago. However, Brazil’s exports are projected to rise 9.0 million.

Wheat Outlook:

Global stockpiles of wheat are shrinking but the market is struggling because of a record crop expected in Russia and the strength of the dollar. The USDA projects exports rising to 825 MB, but that may be a difficult feat to achieve with inspections last week only 13.7 MB. They must average 16.6 MB on a weekly basis if their target is to be reached. In other matters, winter wheat harvest is almost wrapped up at 90 percent complete while the spring crop harvest is lagging at 16 percent versus the average of 35 percent. The bottom line in wheat is that news is lacking to whet the interest of either the bulls or the bears.

Comments and suggestions are provided for information purposes only. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed to its accuracy or completeness. Readers using the information contained herein are responsible for their own actions. No presentations can be made that recommendations will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. This information is neither an offer to sell nor solicitation to buy of the commodity futures mentioned herein. The writer may be trading in the commodities mentioned.