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What a difference a week can make! The dryness and windstorm that blew through Iowa and surrounding states recently apparently did more damage than many had thought. This was reflected in the corn ratings sliding 5-points last week to 64 percent of the crop in good-to-excellent condition. According to Ag Watch’s yield model, this translates to a national yield of 172.4 bpa versus USDA’s estimate of 181.8 bpa. If realized, ending stocks could fall from USDA’s projection of 2.726 BB to 1.960 BB if their demand forecast is used. This would put stocks at their lowest since 2015. At that time, the low end of values for corn was 346, the median 392, and a high of 438. In other developments, export inspections were 35.1 MB with cumulative shipments at 1.624 BB. USDA’s forecast is 1.795 BB.
The spotlight in soybeans remains on China with recent news of trade officials reconfirming their commitment to the Phase I trade deal offering support. Meanwhile, declining production prospects are getting noticed as well. Last week, the crop rating fell 3-points to 69 percent in good-to-excellent condition. According to Ag Watch’s yield model, this equates to a national yield of 50.2 bpa compared to USDA’s estimate of 53.3 bpa. If their current demand projection is used, ending stocks could fall to 352 MB versus the present estimate of 610 MB. This would be the smallest ending stocks since 2017. During that time, the low end of values was 900, the median 963, and a high of 1027. In other developments, exports were solid last week with inspections at 42.2 MB, their highest since the end of January. China took 20.1 MB.
Dryness in Argentina as well as Ukraine and Russia is underpinning wheat. In addition, the spring wheat harvest is lagging at 49 percent complete compared to the average of 62 percent. Looking at exports, inspections were favorable last week at 20.9 MB and above the average of 18.6 MB needed each week to reach USDA’s target of 975 MB. However, cumulative shipments are running behind and on track for 930 MB.
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