On The Money Grain Commentary 8-5-21

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Corn Outlook:

The extensive heat during July has probably taken a greater toll on the corn crop than most realize. Many producers have informed me that although their crop looks good from the road, further examination shows that 10-15 percent of their yield potential has likely been taken off the top. These are some of the better producing areas in the eastern Corn Belt. However, the situation in the upper Midwest is more dire. Last week, the rating fell 2-points at 62 percent of the crop reported in good-to-excellent condition. This compares to a rating of 72 percent a year ago. According to Ag Watch’s yield model, this equates to a national yield of 165.4 bpa versus 172.0 bpa a year ago. In other developments, exports are beginning to show some life. Inspections last week were 54.4 MB, the highest since mid-June. China took 61.1 percent of the shipments, their largest since late May.

Bean Outlook:

Crop conditions have stabilized in soybeans with the rating last week improving 2-points to 60 percent in the good-to-excellent category. However, this is well below last year’s rating of 73 percent. According to Ag Watch’s yield model, the national yield is 47.3 bpa versus 50.2 bpa a year ago. While weather has moderated recently, hot conditions are expected to return later in the month. In other developments, export inspections were mediocre at 6.6 MB. With less than 4 weeks left in the marketing year, we must ship 32.6 MB each week to reach USDA’s target of 2.270 BB. Not a lot has been mentioned about Brazil lately, but expectations are that they will plant record soybean acres this fall. That said, once concerns about weather fades, prices could face considerable resistance.

Wheat Outlook:

The prospect for a dismal spring wheat crop has been the factor underpinning the wheat market. In addition, the production prospects in Canada and Russia are declining. Although the rating improved one-point last week to 10 percent in good-to-excellent condition, it makes little difference now, as harvest of the spring crop is well underway and 17 percent complete. Meanwhile, harvest of the winter crop is wrapping up at 91 percent done. In other developments, export inspections last week were run of the mill at 14.2 MB and must average 17.1 MB each week to reach USDA’s projection of 875 MB.

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