On The Money Grain Commentary 9-30-21

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Corn Outlook:

Corn stocks are not as tight as expected as the USDA projects them as of September 1st at 1.236 BB. This is 683 MB less than a year ago, but 69 MB more than expected. Meanwhile, corn harvest is progressing at a fast clip and is 18 percent done versus the average of 15 percent. Yields are slightly less than expected and will be monitored closely because of the increase in stocks. Exports are improving as the Gulf port comes back online with inspections last week a marketing year high of 20.3 MB. Corn planting is underway in Brazil and 22 percent complete. Right now, the bulls need some friendly news.

Bean Outlook:

The soybean bulls swallowed a bitter pill from USDA’s September 1st stocks estimate of 256 MB. This was 268 MB less than a year ago, but 84 MB more than expected. It also exceeded the highest trade guess and puts stocks at a more comfortable level. In other developments, soybean harvest is getting into full swing and is 16 percent done versus the average of 13 percent. Yields are about as expected, maybe better. China’s energy shortages, primarily coal, have raised concerns as soybean processors have been forced to cut back on their operations. However, China purchased 334,000 tons this week, their largest buy in several weeks. Last week, export inspections were a marketing year high of 16.1 MB with China taking 65 percent of the shipments. Planting is beginning in Brazil with expectations that they will produce another record crop.

Wheat Outlook:

Concerns of rising inflation is causing end users to increase their coverage of wheat. Meanwhile, the bulls got a surprise from USDA’s stocks forecast as of September 1st at 1.780 BB. This was 378 MB less than a year ago and 77 MB below the trade guess. It was also at the low end of the estimates. In other developments, winter wheat planting is progressing smoothly and is 34 percent complete compared to 32 percent for the average. Last week, export inspections were disappointing at 10.5 MB. Since late August, shipments have fallen nearly 12 percent.

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