On The Money Grain Commentary 9-7-23

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Corn Outlook:

Concerns about weather in corn have largely passed with the focus now being on next week’s crop report, demand, and planting intentions in South America. Expectations are that the USDA will lower the yield from their current estimate of 175.1 bpa. While a reduction could occur, be aware that the crop rating at the end of August was one-point higher than at the end of July. Ag Watch’s yield model has the national yield at 175.0 bpa. In other matters, export inspections in the final week of the marketing year were 18.9 MB. Cumulative shipments for the season are 1.466 BB compared to USDA’s projection of 1.625 BB. Their target for the 2023-24 year is 2.050 BB, and we will have to hit the ground running for it to be reached.

Bean Outlook

Weather will soon run the course on soybeans as conditions are forecast to moderate over the next few days. In the meantime, expectations are that the USDA will lower their yield estimate from the current forecast of 50.9 bpa in the crop report next week. How much of a reduction is questionable, as the crop rating at the end of August was 6-points higher than at the end of July. Ag Watch’s yield model has the national yield at 48.5 bpa. In other developments, export inspections for the final week of the marketing year were 13.9 MB with cumulative shipments at 1.919 BB. This fell slightly below USDA’s target of 1.980 BB. Looking at the 2023-24 season, their forecast is for exports of 1.825 BB. As mentioned in previous comments, we need to see exports of 30-35 MB right off the bat, especially by early October, as shipments tend to peak by late November. With a record acres expected to be planted in Brazil, China’s purchases may be nominal suggesting that USDA’s target could be tough to reach.

Wheat Outlook:

Wheat mustered a bounce early this week from Russia saying that they will not participate in the Black Sea Grain Deal unless they are allowed back on the SWIFT banking system. However, they have made these threats before. Meanwhile, exports are sluggish with inspections last week of 11.0 MB. They must average 13.8 MB on a weekly basis to meet USDA’s target of 700 MB. Spring wheat harvest is moving along at 74 percent complete compared to 68 percent a year ago and 77 percent for the average.

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