On The Money Grain Commentary 2-15-18

If you would like to receive our technical comments including price projections and cycle analysis for important tops and bottoms, click on the link at the bottom of the commentary to sign up for a 30-day free trial subscription. Follow Ag Watch Market Advisors on Facebook and Twitter for timely information not posted in our

Corn Outlook:

Corn was underpinned this week from ongoing weather concerns in Argentina and expectations that there could be an uptick in inflation. The Federal Reserve is putting everyone on notice that they may raise interest rates a couple of times in 2018 which is giving rise to ideas that inflation might be on the upswing. This likely triggered the funds to bail out of shorts last week. In corn, they dumped 370 MB of their shorts reducing them to 360 MB. Right now, the question is whether they will cover the rest of their position and go long. If they do, additional gains in corn are likely. After setting a marketing year high last week, export inspections slacked off this week at 32.8 MB. We need to ship 49.3 MB each week to reach USDA’s projection of 2.050 BB.

Bean Outlook:

Ongoing concerns of dry weather in Argentina have been an on again, off again, affair for several weeks in soybeans. However, any shortfall in production could be made up with Brazil’s crop. Meanwhile, another factor underpinning values is expectations for an uptick in inflation and the rebound in stocks following last week’s washout. The funds apparently think the market has found an area of value as they cut 45 MB from their shorts last week reducing them to 290 MB. Like corn, the question is whether they will cover the rest of their position and go long. Looking at exports, inspections last week were 48.4 MB. This was the second straight week the pace of shipments has improved.

Wheat Outlook:

Dry conditions in the southern Plains continues to underpin wheat. This could become a big factor next month when the crop emerges from dormancy. Last week, the funds bailed on 115 MB on their shorts reducing them to 470 MB. Additional short covering will could bring some bulls back to the table. Looking at exports, they remain a sore spot with inspections last week at 17.9 MB. This is barely above the average needed to reach USDA’s target of 950 MB.

Want the kind of intel that helps serious producers succeed? Sign up for a FREE! trial subscription to our daily newsletters. ]

Comments and suggestions are provided for information purposes only. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed to its accuracy or completeness. Readers using the information contained herein are responsible for their own actions. No presentations can be made that recommendations will be profitable or that they will not result in losses. This information is neither an offer to sell nor solicitation to buy of the commodity futures mentioned herein. The writer may be trading in the commodities mentioned.