On The Money Grain Commentary 10-12-23

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Corn Outlook:

Nerves have been on edge this week because of Hamas’s attack against Israel. Most of the impact has been in the financial and energy markets while it did not seem to spook the grains. This is largely because they are not directly affected by the conflict with the current interest being on harvest and exports. In other matters, USDA lowered the corn yield in the crop report more than expected to 173.0 bpa from 173.8 bpa in September. Ending stocks are down 110 MB to 2.111 BB while global stocks fell 1.6 million tons to 312.4 million. While the report may look friendly from the supply cut, demand is down 50 MB. Meanwhile, harvest is progressing quickly and is 34 percent complete which is ahead of the average of 31 percent. Export inspections last week were run of the mill at 21.6 MB.

Bean Outlook

Soybeans got a boost this week from the USDA lowering their yield estimate slightly more than expected to 49.6 bpa from 50.1 bpa last month. Also, ending stocks were left unchanged at 220 MB with traders looking for them closer to 236 MB. Meanwhile, world stocks fell 3.7 million tons to 115.6 which was more than expected. While the report seems friendly, be aware that exports were lowered 35 MB while Brazil’s estimate was raised 500,000 tons. In other developments, harvest is proceeding at a rapid pace and is 43 percent done versus the average of 37 percent. After getting off to a slow start for the season, export inspections last week were a marketing year high at 60.3 MB with China taking 52.0 MB of the shipments. However, this is the time of the year when shipments to them are the highest as they generally peak in November.

Wheat Outlook:

USDA increased ending stocks more than expected to 670 MB which was 55 MB higher than last month. Meanwhile, global stocks are down 500,000 tons to 258.1 million. Plenty of competition is expected from Russia as their exports were increased 1.0 million tons and the dollar is rising. Right now, our exports are holding their own with inspections last week at 14.5 MB. In other matters, planting of the winter crop is 57 percent done, which is par for the average.
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